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on March 28, the Shanghai stock index opened low and went low, fell more than 1% in the session, and then fell in real estate Driven by finance and other factors, it rose slightly and returned to the top of 3200. It fell again in the intraday trading and barely turned red in the late trading; The Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index fell to 12000 points and the gem index fell more than 1.5% to 2600 points. The turnover of the two cities shrank again, with a full day turnover of less than 900 billion yuan. There was a significant net inflow of funds from the north in the afternoon, and a full day net purchase of more than 5 billion yuan. As of the close of
, the Shanghai index rose 0.07% to 3214.5 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.02% to 11949.94 points, and the gem index fell 1.66% to 2594.13 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 870.4 billion yuan, and the net purchase of funds from the North was 5.03 billion yuan. On the disk of
, wine making, aviation, medicine, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other sectors fell, the real estate sector continued to be strong, and the media, tourism, coal, banking, electric power, steel and other sectors strengthened; The concept of Hongmeng broke out, and themes such as meta universe, aquatic products and online games were active, while lithium mines, lithium batteries, xinguanyao and energy storage concepts fell.
CICC believe that the short-term market may still be repeated, but the more targeted “steady growth” policy may also gradually bring about the improvement of fundamental expectations. Similar to the sharp decline in the previous period, the stage may have ended, and the short-term market may still be at the bottom stage. Combined with the recent market adjusted valuation, it has gradually approached the level of December 2018 and the end of March 2020. From the medium-term perspective, the market opportunity is greater than the risk. In the future, if combined with the market transaction, it may further shrink to about 700 billion yuan, which may be more helpful to judge the emergence of the bottom of the market stage.
Guotai Junan Securities said that the profit expectation decreases + the discount rate is expected to rise. The time for a shares to reverse the trend has not yet come, and the index will still fluctuate in the range. From the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, do a good job in defense and counterattack, rather than trend counterattack. From a strategic point of view, spring will eventually come, and we should also be ready for the coming spring. However, the premise is that investors still need to defend and wait until the demand side policies and fundamental expectations are clear. Maintain an “empty cup” mentality. The short-term market is still dominated by sideways shocks, 3100-3400 At the same time, another important factor that cannot be ignored is the transaction structure. The rise of investors’ risk-free interest rate is making a shares enter the contraction game. The current logical focus of stock selection of
should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) pro inflation & High Dividend: coal and chemical resources; 2) To G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pigs and Baijiu, and focus on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods and light industry in the middle part of Q2.
(source: Securities Times)